First Pick Advantage in a Snake Draft - Does It Matter

Updated 2026-07-13

Does first pick actually matter in a snake draft?

First pick matters less in a snake draft than it does in a straight order, but it is not worth zero — captain A still gets the single best player in the pool before anyone else chooses, even though captain B's immediate double pick evens out the rest of the draft. The honest answer is that first pick is a small, real edge that the ABBA ABBA structure compensates for rather than eliminates entirely.

This is a different question from which order is fairer overall — that comparison between snake and straight ABAB order is settled ground. What's worth breaking down here is the actual first pick advantage snake draft math: what the first pick is worth, and how that value changes depending on the pool and the pick slot itself.

What is the first pick actually worth in an 8-pick snake draft?

The first pick is worth exactly one thing: first look at the single best remaining player in the pool, before any other captain has chosen. That value is highest when one player clearly stands above the rest of the pool, and lowest when the pool is evenly matched — if every remaining player is roughly interchangeable, picking first barely matters because picking second would land almost the same result.

This is a pick-value curve, not a fixed number: the gap between pick 1 and pick 2 shrinks as the pool gets more even, and widens when the pool has one standout player everyone wants. A captain drafting from a lobby with one clear Immortal-ranked player among mostly Legend-tier names is picking from a pool with a steep value curve; a lobby where everyone sits within a tight rank band has a much flatter one.

How does the ABBA ABBA order compensate for the first-pick edge?

The ABBA ABBA order compensates for the first-pick edge through captain B's immediate double-pick compensation: captain B picks twice in a row right after captain A's single first pick. Across the opening three picks, captain A takes the single best player at pick 1, and captain B takes picks 2 and 3 — both of the two next-best players in the pool, not a choice between them. That is a meaningfully strong consolation, not a token gesture.

That double-pick compensation is why the format is called fair rather than merely "less unfair than ABAB." The slot math backs it up: captain A picks at slots 1, 4, 5, and 8, while captain B picks at slots 2, 3, 6, and 7 — and 1+4+5+8 equals 2+3+6+7, so in a pool where skill drops off evenly from best to worst, the two rosters come out level. What no pick order can equalize is who gets the single standout player when a pool has one: pick 1 always sees one more player than pick 2 does, and that leftover is the small edge this page is about.

Does captains draft strategy differ by pick slot?

Yes — the correct read for pick 1 is different from the correct read for the closing picks, because the pick-value curve and the shrinking pool change what "best pick" even means at each point. Pick 1 rewards taking the strongest remaining player almost without exception, since there is no role pressure yet and the whole pool is still available.

By the closing picks, the calculation flips: there is no later pick to fix a gap, so filling a missing role usually outweighs taking the strongest individual player still in the pool. The last pick that involves a real decision is pick 7 — pick 8 is forced, since only one player remains in an 8-pick draft by then. A captain at pick 7 choosing between the strongest remaining player and a needed support — someone who plays a classic position 5 like Chen — should almost always take the role fit, because nothing after that pick offers a do-over.

Does the value of first pick change with the size of the skill spread?

Yes — first pick is worth more in a lobby with a wide skill spread and worth less in a lobby where everyone is close in rank. A pool with one dominant player and nine roughly even players hands captain A a first pick worth arguing over; a pool where all ten players sit within a tight MMR band makes the first pick barely different from the second.

This is why the same ABBA ABBA order can feel like a bigger deal in one lobby than another — the order itself never changes, but what's actually being fought over in that first pick does. A recurring in-house group with a stable, similar-skill roster will notice the first-pick argument matter less over time than a lobby that mixes wildly different rank tiers every week.

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